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Data Czar Deliberations

I looked at a comparison to see how 2023 is shaping up versus our record year for nests on Hunting Island of 2022. As of June 14th this year, 2023 is about 8 nests behind the pace that 2022 set. I used "day of nest" from the day of the first nest for this comparison. 79 nests in 2022 and 71 as of today in 2023. So, for example, today we had nest # 71 on day of year 165, or 40 days after the first nest in 2023. By day 40 in 2022, we had 79 nests. I always say that turtles don't care about dates so I did this analysis using days since the first nest of the season. I believe it is about food supply and water temps, among other environmental clues, that determine when nesting starts.

If we look strictly at dates, June 14th of both years, 2022 had 68 nests and 71 nests in 2023. Regardless of how we look at it, 2023 is shaping up to be a good year it seems - on pace with 2022.

2022 really had some strong nesting days starting around 6/16, day 39 since the first nest that year.

For those interested, the starting dates for the nesting season were not that different. The first nest for 2022 was on day of year 128 or May 8th. The first nest of 2023 was on day of year 125 or May 5th.

There were 93 elapsed nesting days in 2022, and we are at 40 so far in 2023. So about another 2 months to go in 2023.

Buddy asked me today, when did we start seeing a decline in number of daily nests in 2022? Several ways to look at that. I looked at the daily nests in 2022 and 2023. If I look at the peak in 2022 and then see a fall off, you might say the decline happened around day of year 195 (day from first nest of 67) or July 14th. If you look at a 4-day moving average for 2022, you might argue the decline in number of daily nests began around day of year 183, or day from first nest of 55 or July 2nd. I sure others would argue something different. If I use these 2 days, then we should see this wave continue and the decline begin around early July. So hang on, it will be busy beach for another 3 weeks or so."

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